Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and his Sudan Counterpart Omar El Bashir Maybe overthrown in 2017, According to the Annual risk Map on Political and Business risks Published by Control risk a Specialist consultancy.
Citing the economic pressures that the two countries are currently undergoing, the report says ”Growing trends of insecurity and economic hardship will pose challenges to the power of two of the region’s longest-standing leaders and have the potential to facilitate a surprise change at the top”
This is not the first time a report has claimed that the President of Uganda may be overthrown. However, the Control risk report is meant to act as a warning to investors and business people may adversely affect Uganda and Sudan’s wobbly economies.
In Uganda, the Price of sugar, the commodity whose rise fueled the 2011 walk to work protests, has risen again by over 30% in the last week alone, while Sudan’s Omar El Bashir is facing a growing disobedience over the economic pressures Faced by his citizens.
According to Control risk ‘macroeconomic instability fuelled by low oil prices and global economic sentiment will continue to be the main driver of business risks across East Africa in 2017”
This is already visible in Sudan where the low Oil prices and the reduction in South Sudan’s oil Production is bringing Sudan’s Economy to its Knees and forcing an uprising on the country’s long-term leader Omar el-Bashir.
Sudan needs south Sudan to pump oil for its to gain in terms of fees for the use of its infrastructure. These fees would bring in the much needed foreign exchange, but in the face of a civil war in the south, and low oil prices, that money was not coming.
However not all is gloom, Daniel Heal, Senior Partner for Control Risks East Africa, says “Macro-economic and domestic political changes are driving African nations to reinvent themselves in the hope of becoming Dubai or Singapore style commercial hubs. This will present lucrative new opportunities for business, but equally, engender unknown risks and require a deeper understanding of the local political and regulatory environment.
Below is the East Africa outlook according to Control risk
The Jubilee Party of Kenya is likely to secure another term in office. However, due to opposition pressure, it is likely the months ahead of the polls will be marked by instability and localised violence in particularly contentious constituencies.
The ruling party Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front is expected to retain power through continued repression of opposition forces and the introduction of limited political and economic reforms. Fractures within the coalition will become more visible, complicating attempts at more comprehensive reforms to diffuse tensions and woo back investors.
President Magufuli is expected to continue his austerity and reform programme while showing a growing nationalistic stance, increasing fiscal and regulatory risks to business.
Uganda and Sudan
Growing trends of insecurity and economic hardship will pose challenges to the power of two of the region’s longest standing leaders and have the potential to facilitate a surprise change at the top.
Sporadic acts of terrorism will continue, mainly affecting border areas of Kenya. Attacks under the banner of so called Islamic State are expected to remain opportunistic, unsophisticated and directed at symbols of the state, particularly security forces.
Daniel Heal continues, “For businesses to succeed in this diverse region, it is important to take a threat-led approach and understand the unique and evolving risks that could impact the business in that specific market.”